Politics 2024: A look ahead to what is likely to be a general election year

Trying to predict the future is usually a tricky business, particularly in the volatile world of politics and even more so in light of the crazy, unforeseen twists and turns of recent years.

Who would have forecast a right-wing prime minister coming to power in the UK, blowing the economy and disappearing again within seven weeks? Or a former First Minister and her husband being arrested and questioned in a police investigation of party finances before being released without charge?

Much of politics, like life, is unpredictable. Who can tell what the next 12 months will bring? But all things considered, it seems a reasonable guess that 2024 is likely to be a general election year.

Rishi Sunak entered Number Ten just over 14 months ago, in October 2022, following Liz Truss's disastrous and mercifully short-lived premiership. The fabulously wealthy former hedge fund manager hoped that despite the Tories being in power since 2010, his arrival in office would be seen as a fresh start. He thought the simple fact he was not Boris Johnson or Liz Truss might be enough to make him popular. But it hasn't turned out quite like that. Polls consistently show Labour with a substantial lead.

Mr Sunak has changed strategy several times, one moment dissing 30 years of failed politics, thereby damning the efforts of every Tory leader after Margaret Thatcher, then bringing back former leader David Cameron to be Foreign Secretary in an apparent bid to improve the government's credibility.

But nothing seems to be working. YouGov recently recorded Mr Sunak’s lowest-ever favourability rating at minus 49 – 10 points down from a few weeks earlier and on a par with Boris Johnson's when he resigned.

With pundits predicting a decisive Labour victory, Mr Sunak is in no rush to hold an election. A few weeks ago, polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said if the Conservatives went for an election sooner rather than later it would "look like a suicide mission".

In theory, at least, the election doesn't have to be held for another year – the last possible date is January 28, 2025. Prime ministers often try to wait until the last comfortable date – perhaps just a few months before their time runs out – but It's unusual for governments to soldier on right to the very end, by which time they would be looking really desperate and be left with absolutely no room for manoeuvre. But he could do it.

As of now, it looks like the Tories will be struggling whenever the election is. And in Scotland, the SNP's prospects also look less than rosy. A revival of Labour fortunes across the UK affects Scottish voters too.

Many, including previous SNP backers, will see it as an opportunity to get rid of the UK Tory government rather than declare yet again their desire for independence. They may well opt for an immediately achievable goal rather than cast a symbolic vote for a future which now seems a receding prospect.

But things can change. The dramatic and unexpected events of recent years and their repercussions have underlined the vital truth of Harold Wilson's wry observation that a week is a long time in politics – and probably the futility of forecasting. In political terms, a year is almost an eternity.