Scottish Labour: Will a change of leader improve party's Holyrood election prospects? – Ian Swanson

With just four months to go, there’s no time for the prolonged period of reflection – or in-fighting – which has often been seen on previous occasions.

The two contenders, Anas Sarwar and Monica Lennon, have until noon today to secure nominations from MSPs, then a week to get supporting nominations from local parties and trade unions. After a short period for hustings, members start voting on February 9 and the result will be declared on February 27.

Some may have hoped to avoid a contest at all, with the favourite Mr Sarwar – who lost last time – as a unanimous choice to take the party forward, but it is probably healthier for all concerned not to have a coronation.

Richard Leonard’s announcement last week that he was stepping down with immediate effect came as a surprise. He had come under fierce criticism from some of his fellow-MSPs and others in September over his lack of impact in three years as leader, but he fought back, insisted he was not going anywhere and when the attempted coup collapsed his critics accepted he would be in post until after the elections.

So what changed? The claim is that big party donors made clear in a Zoom call with senior Scottish Labour figures that they would not carry on funding the party if Mr Leonard remained, this was relayed to UK Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and he then told Mr Leonard he would have to go.

Clearly, if that’s an accurate account, it’s not how democratic parties should decide on their leaders – and especially not the Labour party.

Mr Leonard’s departure may fit with Labour’s shift of mood following the end of the Corbyn era, but Sir Keir’s alleged role, even as messenger, revives the damaging impression of the Scottish party as a branch office of the UK operation, having to follow orders rather than shape its own future.

How will a change in leadership affect Labour’s performance in the elections? A new face at the top can often give a party a boost but there is a very short time for the new leader to establish themselves in the public mind and for voters to feel confident in assessing them.

And Labour is still faced with the problem that, like it or not, independence remains the big debate in Scottish politics. The party is stuck between unyielding Nationalists on the one hand and ultra-unionist Tories on the other and however good its own ideas about federalism might be, they end up looking like a half-hearted compromise.

Labour politicians can reasonably argue education and health and jobs are more important than the constitution, but all the signs are it’s the SNP’s plans for a second independence referendum which will be the dividing line at the election.

There seems little doubt the SNP will romp to victory in May, but polls do suggest Labour could be well-placed to overtake the Tories and regain second place at Holyrood. That would obviously be a limited achievement compared with the party’s half-century of total dominance of Scottish politics, but nonetheless in the current circumstances a significant advance.

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