Edinburgh and Lothians predicted to produce major gains for Labour at next general election

Labour is set to win six seats from the SNP across Edinburgh and the Lothians at the general election, according to a new polling projection.

Using polls from Scottish newspapers and media, the Electoral Calculus website has predicted Labour would gain two seats in the Capital as well as East Lothian, Midlothian and the two West Lothian seats.

The current polling prediction by Electoral Calculus on the number of seats each party would win across Scotland gives Labour 29, compared with the single seat the party won at the last election in 2019; the SNP would be down from 48 to 17; the Tories up two, from six to eight; and the Lib Dems up one, from four to five.

And across the UK, Electoral Calculus predicts a Labour landslide, giving the party an overall majority of 268 – well above the 179-seat majority won by Tony Blair in 1997.The next election will be fought on new boundaries, although in Lothian most of the constituencies have seen only minor changes, one of the main ones being the transfer of a large chunk of Musselburgh from East Lothian to Edinburgh East.

The seat-by-seat analysis produced by Electoral Calculus predicts the new Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, will be won by Labour with a majority of 4,343, ousting Tommy Sheppard, the SNP MP for the area since 2015.

In Edinburgh North & Leith, currently held by the SNP's Deidre Brock, Labour is predicted to win with a majority of 5,011. And Ian Murray, who was Scotland's only Labour MP at the last election, would increase his 11,095 majority in Edinburgh South to over 26,000.

According to the predictions, Joanna Cherry in Edinburgh South West would be the only SNP MP in Edinburgh or the Lothians to hold onto her seat. And even there, a big swing to Labour would leave her with a reduced majority of 1,472. Liberal Democrat Christine Jardine would also retain her Edinburgh West seat with a majority of over 4,904 with Labour in second place.

In East Lothian, won in 2019 for the SNP by Kenny MacAskill, who has since switched to Alba, the prediction for the new seat, named Lothian East, is a majority of 11,795 for Labour’s candidate, former Cabinet minister Douglas Alexander. And in Midlothian, currently held by the SNP's Owen Thompson, Labour is predicted to win by 8,352.

Electoral Calculus gives Livingston – current MP Hannah Bardell – to Labour with a majority of 2,052. And the new seat of Bathgate & Linlithgow would also go to Labour by 3,002 votes.

Ian Murray said: “We’re not taking any votes for granted. We’re very pleased with the progess that's been made. The next election is an election for change and if they want that change they re going to have to vote for it – and in terms of the poling at this stage, it looks as if they are very happy to back that change.

"We’re fighting for every single vote, we’ll be running pretty strong campaigns in every seat in the Lothians and at the moment things are looking very positive.”