The magic number: How Hibs can save their season after failure to launch

From their current position just a few feet above the launch pad, the goal of qualifying for European football via the league standings looks like an ambition of stratospheric proportions. The chances of Hibs suddenly rocketing up the table are, in the eyes of most neutral judges, on a par with NASA offering day trips to the moon for £6.50 a head.

As the smartest people in the cleverest working parties at Cape Kennedy could testify, however, the only way to tackle a long journey is to break it down into more manageable stages. Nick Montgomery’s men will be looking no further than the low orbit of a top-six position. When the Scottish Premiership elite jettison the bottom half, they cannot afford to be left behind.

The eight-game stretch to be navigated before that cut-off point is certainly laden with opportunities for Hibs – currently sitting seventh – to overtake at least one of the teams above them. Five of the fixtures are against teams from the wrong end of the table, for starters. And, while Saturday’s visitors to Easter Road are currently five points clear of Hibs, a home win over Dundee would give Monty’s men everything to play for.

But it has to start with victory this weekend. Because history, mathematics and basic common sense tell us that they’ll need every ounce of momentum they can muster.

Look through the five most recent full seasons in the Scottish Premiership, excluding the single Covid-shortened campaign, and you’ll see that the average points total required to make the top six after 33 games is 44 points. Hit that mark and you’re likely to end up on the right side of the split. Fall short and you risk being consigned to kicking around with the relegation dodgers for the final five rounds of fixtures.

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Hibs currently sit on 27 points with eight games to go. To be certain, then, they’ll need 17 points from the next 24 available. Daunting but doable? For a team who have taken three of the previous 24 points up for grabs?

Let’s break it down game by game (opponent’s current league position in brackets):

DUNDEE (6) H 24.02.24

The story so far: A dull nil-nil draw at Easter Road in September was followed by a 2-1 Hibs win at Dens in November.

Prediction: 3 points – or Hibs are really in trouble.

HEARTS (3) A 28.02.24

So far: Brilliant fightback to claim a 2-2 draw at Tynecastle in October was followed by the disappointment of Lawrence Shankland scoring the only goal – in injury time – at Easter Road just after Christmas.

Prediction: 1 point.

ROSS COUNTY (11) H 02.03.24

So far: Drew 2-2 at Easter Road on Hallowe’en before weather forced the late postponement of their pre-Christmas clash in Dingwall.

Prediction: 3 points.

ROSS COUNTY (11) 13.03.24

So far: See above. This is the game rearranged from December.

Prediction: 3 points.

LIVINGSTON (12) 16.03.24

So far: A 3-2 home loss to Livi in August saw Lee Johnson dismissed. Montgomery steered his team to a scrappy 1-0 away win – their last league victory, to date – on December 9.

Prediction: 3 points.

RANGERS (1) 30.03.24

So far: Played two, lost two. Scored zero, conceded seven.

Prediction: 0 points.

ST JOHNSTONE (10) H 06.04.24

So far: Hibs were two points off third place and already had a 2-0 home win over Saints in the bag when they pitched up to McDiarmid Park on December 16. A 1-0 loss there marked the beginning of their current eight-game winless streak in the league.

Prediction: 1 point.

MOTHERWELL (9) A 13.04.24

So far: A 2-1 loss at Fir Park in August, then a 2-2 draw at Easter Road in January.

Prediction: 1 point.

On paper, that looks like a pretty impressive run of results. But it still only adds up to 15 points, taking Monty's men to 42 at the split. Which might be enough. Maybe. With a little help from others.

Could Hibs muster a win at home to Craig Levein’s inevitably stubborn St Johnstone? If it were all to play for on the final day, might they have enough grit and gumption to triumph at Fir Park? They could. They might. They may have to. It starts by gaining some much-needed altitude at Dundee’s expense on Saturday.